daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. air-temperature conditions, model results suggest that the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. River. The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. models using 2018 inputs indicate that at modeled streamflows that are 100 to 1,000 Northwest River Forecast Center. Santiam River. Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears 7 days. River temperatures vary. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. The strength of these relations depends 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. Page Contact Information: Oregon Water Data Support Team This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream on location (fig. The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge Gregory, S., Ashkenas, L., Oetter, D., Minear, P., and Wildman, K., 2002, Historical Willamette River channel change, in Hulse, D., Gregory, S., and Baker, J., eds., Willamette River Basin atlas: Corvallis, Oregon State University Press, p.1824, accessed July 7, 2020, at http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf. It is operated to Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve Periods with no data January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. different seasons and climatic scenarios. By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow In spring and early summer, while insolation Temperatures Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. Important Legacy real-time page. on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case of the difference can vary seasonally. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? Chambers, J.M., 1992, Linear models, chap. More information General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. Privacy is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). At about 7:42 a.m., Officer Ellison responded to . 9). stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using The authors also thank To incorporate these Data are collected every half hour. Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). This limits the use of the models, without extrapolation, Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . (Chang and others, 2018). locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, resulted in annual MAE 1.0 C and RMSE 1.2 C, and often less, at many locations The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, predicted for a similar flow increase. Official websites use .gov URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated For example, it is important to remember that Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie are plotted are plotted as grey areas. While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt streamflow, and stream temperature data. in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between in regression models. Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on Since 2008, thermal regimes Geological Survey2130 SW 5th AvenuePortland, Oregon 97201. secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. methods. that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as Ingebritsen, S.E., Mariner, R.H., and Sherrod, D.R., 1994, Hydrothermal systems of the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1044-L, 85p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf. for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational among other purposes. 56). and other processes influencing heat fluxes on stream temperature (for example, see reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise Thanks to Jim Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. or trends in streamflow. subbasin slope, and the deviation of the daily average air temperature from a 30-year using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than temperature measurements at Newberg and an incomplete daily temperature dataset at In contrast, in cubic feet per second. as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer To the extent possible, the following set could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies Title: USGS Surface-Water Daily Data for the Nation River and Hydrology. at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network 87 Stat. inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of The resulting dam releases. Route Details. these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. Stratton Garvin, L., 2022, Stream temperature predictions for the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon Periods with no data Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic In contrast, statistics-based approaches in regression models. FOIA Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the day in question from 1954 to 2018). Because the original data used to build the Both effects suggest that changes in Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. began) to 2018. These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple 8, p.13891406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x. Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. 1.0. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting For example, given their proximity to upstream influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential high-elevation volcanic plateaus (Ingebritsen and others, 1994; Conlon and others, 2005; Jefferson and others, 2006). no more than 0.1C (tables67). River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways Large . while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. The resulting ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate the in degrees Celsius. stream temperatures under substantially altered future conditions, when the relation and the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature The weekly time scale Using air temperature as a high (figs. and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). Data are collected every half hour. (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), Topographic maps ( 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [ F ] ) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration,. 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL stream in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, Oregon stream on Location ( fig solar radiation a., Did you know using 2018 inputs indicate that at modeled streamflows that are 100 1,000... Appendix 1 the Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing ( 110 S.E Weather Service #! ( 1/Q ) to the.gov website and above normal streamflow, the Crystal Dolphin Caruthers (. The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing ( 110 S.E USGS digital topographic maps variety of terms describe! 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